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Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78088] Sun, 26 September 2010 19:08 Go to next message
Pat Niles
Messages: 19
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
Here's the list of qualifiers:

East Plains/Michigan
1. Overhaul
2. BOI
3. Santa Maria

West Plains
1. CLX
2. MethOD
3. Threat Level Midnight

Northwest Plains
1. Drag'n Thrust
2. Madison Proper (Evil Twin)
3. Pelican Breach
4. scottyface
5. Plowed
6. NOISE

Central Plains
1. Gambit
2. Prion
3. IBEX
4. Hexxus

Let's hear some chatter on seedings.

Pat
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78089 is a reply to message #78088] Sun, 26 September 2010 19:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Big D
Messages: 18
Registered: September 2009
Junior Member
On Sep 26, 9:08 pm, Pat Niles <nile...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Here's the list of qualifiers:
>
> East Plains/Michigan
> 1. Overhaul
> 2. BOI
> 3. Santa Maria
>
> West Plains
> 1. CLX
> 2. MethOD
> 3. Threat Level Midnight
>
> Northwest Plains
> 1. Drag'n Thrust
> 2. Madison Proper (Evil Twin)
> 3. Pelican Breach
> 4. scottyface
> 5. Plowed
> 6. NOISE
>
> Central Plains
> 1. Gambit
> 2. Prion
> 3. IBEX
> 4. Hexxus
>
> Let's hear some chatter on seedings.
>
> Pat

Using RRI and playing around to account with sectional finishes and a
couple head to head results.

1. CLX
2. Dragon
3. Overhaul
4. Method
5. Madison Proper
6. Gambit
7. BOI
8. Santa Maria
9. Prion
10. Pelican
11. scottyface
12. TLM
13. Plowed
14. Ibex
15. NOISE
16. Hexxus

Just threw it together quickly, but I hope I'm not missing anything
blatant
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78092 is a reply to message #78089] Sun, 26 September 2010 20:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
shawkins
Messages: 2
Registered: September 2010
Junior Member
Should be interesting.

CLX beats Dragon
Dragon beat Overhaul
Overhaul beat CLX

Seems to be a pretty significant drop off after those teams. Lots of mid-level teams in the region.

1. CLX
2. Dragon
3. Overhaul
4. Method
5. Madison Proper
6. Gambit
7. BOI
8. Prion
9. Santa Moria
10. Pelican
11. scottyface
12. TLM
13. Ibex
14. Plowed
15. Noise
16. Hexxus

Steamboat from east plains would have made this region a lot stronger. They're better than a good amount of teams that get to qualify from the Northwest and Central plains.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78094 is a reply to message #78089] Sun, 26 September 2010 20:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
bjm
Messages: 76
Registered: September 2008
Member
On Sep 26, 10:17 pm, Big D <thesolemnwo...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sep 26, 9:08 pm, Pat Niles <nile...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > Here's the list of qualifiers:
>
> > East Plains/Michigan
> > 1. Overhaul
> > 2. BOI
> > 3. Santa Maria
>
> > West Plains
> > 1. CLX
> > 2. MethOD
> > 3. Threat Level Midnight
>
> > Northwest Plains
> > 1. Drag'n Thrust
> > 2. Madison Proper (Evil Twin)
> > 3. Pelican Breach
> > 4. scottyface
> > 5. Plowed
> > 6. NOISE
>
> > Central Plains
> > 1. Gambit
> > 2. Prion
> > 3. IBEX
> > 4. Hexxus
>
> > Let's hear some chatter on seedings.
>
> > Pat
>
> Using RRI and playing around to account with sectional finishes and a
> couple head to head results.
>
> 1. CLX
> 2. Dragon
> 3. Overhaul
> 4. Method
> 5. Madison Proper
> 6. Gambit
> 7. BOI
> 8. Santa Maria
> 9. Prion
> 10. Pelican
> 11. scottyface
> 12. TLM
> 13. Plowed
> 14. Ibex
> 15. NOISE
> 16. Hexxus
>
> Just threw it together quickly, but I hope I'm not missing anything
> blatant

this may help:
http://scores.usaultimate.org/scores/#mixed/seeding/7510

Looks like Overhaul at 3 is smarter than at 1, based on RRI, but they
do have a h2h win vs CLX (and are 0-2 vs DnT).
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78102 is a reply to message #78088] Mon, 27 September 2010 05:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
J
Messages: 13
Registered: September 2008
Junior Member
The RRI between BOI and Gambit is only 17 points and BOI is 2-1 vs. Gambit. I would think that would warrant the 6th seed for BOI over Gambit.

I also agree that Steamboat is a solid team and would have made the region deeper. They beat both Gambit and Prion earlier this year.

Jeff #7 BOI
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78134 is a reply to message #78102] Mon, 27 September 2010 10:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Pat Niles
Messages: 19
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
I agree that there is a gap between the top 3 teams and the rest of
the field, but with BOI beating Overhaul at a couple tournaments this
year and MethOD adding a few rockstars that weren't at CHC, this
region won't be nearly as easy to predict as some people may think.

Regardless of the Overhaul's win over CLX, Overhaul deserves the 3
seed. They have some wins over powerful teams, but they also have
losses to teams that Drag'n (BOI, Gun Totin, wHagonweel) and CLX (BOI)
beat.

The seeding for 1-2 is going to interesting between CLX and Drag'n. I
will admit bias toward Drag'n Thrust, but know both teams very well.
At Cooler, both teams were missing a few key players, notably Kyle
Gill and Jon Staron on the CLX side, Josh "Shwa" Hemmesch, Alex
"Moss" Stanislaw, and Alicia Hermes for Drag'n Thrust. The finals was
a hard fought battle in which Drag'n went up early in the game. CLX
capitalized on a few Drag'n mistakes to push and take the lead and
eventually win on what felt like a 20 minute universe point that
included numerous opportunities for Drag'n to score. Advantage: CLX

Both CLX and Drag'n had full teams at CHC which served as a great
regional preview since all but one of the teams (Steamboat) in the top
pools made regionals. I could offer recap of the Overhaul vs Drag'n
games, but without knowledge of the CLX vs Overhaul game, there would
be no good comparison to be made. The point is this: Drag'n beat
Overhaul beat CLX on the same day in a tournament where the makeup of
teams/players will be extremely similar to Regionals. Advantage:
Drag'n

My seedings would be as follows:
1. Drag'n
2. CLX
3. Overhaul

4-16. As stated above.

Notes:
BOI and Gambit could be switched depending on whether you weigh a
Saturday pool play win or a Sunday placement game higher. In my
opinion, Pelican Breach is going to be a ridiculous 10 seed. Although
head-to-head says otherwise, Pelican could start out seeded 8th above
Prion and Santa Maria. Scottyface will also be a handful seeded
11th.

Whatever happens, it's sad that Steamboat didn't qualify. Everything
else should prove to make this regionals quite unpredictable!

Pat #03 Drag'n
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78136 is a reply to message #78134] Mon, 27 September 2010 10:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
shawkins
Messages: 2
Registered: September 2010
Junior Member
Overhaul looked like a completely different team at sectionals. I talked to a few of their players, and apparently they haven't had a roster over 20 for any tournament this season. Also, it was easy to notice a small handler making a pretty big difference on their lines. Ryan Purcell from Ironside is apparently playing mixed this year and will be playing with Overhaul...this could be a different team at regionals.

MethOD apparently looked like a very strong 4 seed. They performed well at CHC without a couple of their top players. Should be pretty interesting, and I wouldn't want to be in their pool.

I agree that BOI should be ahead of Gambit, no doubt. In fact, I'm not quite sure why I seeded Gambit over them.

I think CLX or Dragon is a tossup for the 1 and 2 seeds, but Overhaul is stuck at 3rd...no way for them to move up. Losses to BOI really hurts them.

Santa Maria looked pretty good at sectionals. They handled Steamboat pretty easily in the game to go.

Take what I say for granted, as I don't actually play mixed, just was around East Plains Sectionals and CHC mixed a lot.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78141 is a reply to message #78136] Mon, 27 September 2010 11:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
gb26
Messages: 5
Registered: September 2010
Location: st louis
Junior Member
clx won worlds. I would give them the nod of the 1 seed.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78195 is a reply to message #78141] Mon, 27 September 2010 19:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
robyn
Messages: 20
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
True...but CLX also won worlds with people who aren't playing the
series with them this year. Their roster looks different from Worlds
to now.

-Robyn, #44 Drag'n


On Sep 27, 1:35 pm, garrett bruce <gbruc...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> clx won worlds. I would give them the nod of the 1 seed.
> --
> Posted fromhttp://www.rsdnospam.com
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78231 is a reply to message #78195] Tue, 28 September 2010 09:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
JThib
Messages: 49
Registered: February 2009
Member
My take on seedings:

1. CLX
2. Drag'N Thrust
3. Overhaul
4. Method
5. Evil Twin
6. B.O.I.
7. Gambit
8. Prion
9. Santa Maria
10. Pelican Breach
11. Scottyface
12. Plowed
13. TLM
14. IBEX
15. NOISE
16. Hexxus

There seems to be alot of consensus on most of the positions and for those that are disputed (1/2 and 6/7, etc) I personally place more weight on head to head results.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78234 is a reply to message #78231] Tue, 28 September 2010 10:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
osu_kula
Messages: 7
Registered: August 2010
Junior Member
It looks like there are several similarities across rankings. However, it is unlikely that Overhaul (#3), BOI (#6), and Santa Maria (#9) will all be in the same pool - using Table 16.1.5 from the Manual.

This would create an East Plains pool at Regionals.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78288 is a reply to message #78234] Tue, 28 September 2010 21:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Big D
Messages: 18
Registered: September 2009
Junior Member
word on the street says that 4 bids are coming out this region. The
top 3 look a cut above the rest.....the battle for 4th should be
awesome
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78302 is a reply to message #78231] Wed, 29 September 2010 06:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
pTropTop
Messages: 1
Registered: September 2010
Junior Member
JThib wrote on Tue, 28 September 2010 09:56
My take on seedings:
There seems to be alot of consensus on most of the positions and for those that are disputed (1/2 and 6/7, etc) I personally place more weight on head to head results.



http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/04/alot-is-better -than-you-at-everything.html

Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78303 is a reply to message #78088] Wed, 29 September 2010 06:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
osu_kula
Messages: 7
Registered: August 2010
Junior Member
Word on the street is correct:
http://www.usaultimate.org/news/2010-club-series-wildcards/

Central Region went nuts.

Looks like if we go with pool play that seeding will be a pure snake, using Table 16.1.1 (1-8-9-16 in Pool A).
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78385 is a reply to message #78094] Thu, 30 September 2010 10:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
playultimate2
Messages: 1
Registered: May 2010
Location: chicago
Junior Member
Does anybody know how this matrix is generated?

Cam
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78390 is a reply to message #78288] Thu, 30 September 2010 10:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
pizzaslot
Messages: 134
Registered: November 2008
Senior Member
On Sep 28, 11:23 pm, Big D <thesolemnwo...@gmail.com> wrote:
> word on the street says that 4 bids are coming out this region. The
> top 3 look a cut above the rest.....the battle for 4th should be
> awesome

What's awesome about mediocre teams playing for a spot to nationals?
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78463 is a reply to message #78390] Fri, 01 October 2010 11:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
eatthefrog
Messages: 4
Registered: October 2009
Junior Member
pizzaslot wrote on Thu, 30 September 2010 12:56
On Sep 28, 11:23 pm, Big D <thesolemnwo...@gmail.com[/email]> wrote:

What's awesome about mediocre teams playing for a spot to nationals?


Yeah, good point. Let's cut out the bottom 4; no, 8; maybe 12; why not 14? teams from Nationals to eliminate all mediocrity.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78468 is a reply to message #78088] Fri, 01 October 2010 13:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
JThib
Messages: 49
Registered: February 2009
Member
The seedings as they are currently posted seem rather off for the top seven teams. As of this post Score Reporter lists the seeds as:

1. Drag'N Thrust
2. Overhaul
3. CLX
4. Method
5. Gambit
6. Evil Twin
7. B.O.I.

These rankings don't seem very representative of each team's seasons.

Drag'N Thrust, despite winning CHC, is 0-1 vs. CLX in head to head matchups. I think this bears more weight than an "X beat Y beat Z" scenario to determine the region's top seed.

Overhaul, who does claim the year's only victory over CLX to date, has shown that they can be an inconsistent team with a pair of losses to B.O.I. If CLX is the one seed, as I think they should be, then Drag'N Thrust is the consensus two with Overhaul falling appropriately to #3. If Drag'N Thrust is the one seed, which I obviously disagree with, then Overhaul may have an argument for #2.

CLX - most of my feelings on where they belong are detailed in my discussions about Overhald and DnT above.

Method - right where they should be at #4, I think.

5, 6, 7 - I can't see how Gambit deserves the five seed here. They are 0-2 vs. B.O.I., and 1-1 vs. Evil Twin (aka Madison Proper). Despite both games being very close, Evil Twin holds the slight point diff advantage of +1 over Gambit. Furthermore, at the one tournament both Gambit and Twin were at (in the same pool no less) Gambit went 0-4 on Saturday while Twin went 3-1.

Evil Twin is 1-0 vs. B.O.I., and B.O.I. is 2-0 vs. Gambit. To me this clearly makes the seeds

#5 - Evil Twin (Madison Proper)
#6 - B.O.I.
#7 - Gambit


Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78473 is a reply to message #78463] Fri, 01 October 2010 13:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
pizzaslot
Messages: 134
Registered: November 2008
Senior Member
On Oct 1, 1:59 pm, Richard <richard.shelmerd...@gmail.com> wrote:
> pizzaslot wrote on Thu, 30 September 2010 12:56
>
> > On Sep 28, 11:23 pm, Big D
> > <thesolemnwo...@gmail.com[/email]> wrote:
>
> > What's awesome about mediocre teams playing for a spot
> > to nationals?
>
> Yeah, good point.  Let's cut out the bottom 4; no, 8; maybe
> 12; why not 14? teams from Nationals to eliminate all
> mediocrity.
> --
> Posted fromhttp://www.rsdnospam.com

So, you agree then.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78474 is a reply to message #78468] Fri, 01 October 2010 13:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
JThib
Messages: 49
Registered: February 2009
Member
JThib wrote on Fri, 01 October 2010 16:17

Evil Twin is 1-0 vs. B.O.I., and B.O.I. is 2-0 vs. Gambit.


Correction: B.O.I. is 2-1 vs. Gambit. This changes very little and I still feel 5-7 should be seeded as I detail in my post above.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78479 is a reply to message #78473] Fri, 01 October 2010 14:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
eatthefrog
Messages: 4
Registered: October 2009
Junior Member
pizzaslot wrote on Fri, 01 October 2010 15:38
So, you agree then.


No. If a team qualifies fairly for an event, I do not begrudge them the opportunity to compete.
And this year's mediocre team might be next year's outside shot and the following year's contender.

/Out
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78489 is a reply to message #78479] Fri, 01 October 2010 15:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
J
Messages: 13
Registered: September 2008
Junior Member
I think it be odd that Overhaul continues to get "knocked down" because the have lost to B.O.I. twice this year but B.O.I. does not get a "bump up" because we are the only team to have cracked the "top three" this year. This added to the fact that we are the only team, not in the "top three", to have beaten a team from last year's nationals. We are 2-2 against Overhaul (the current number 2 seed) and 2-1 vs Gambit (the current 5 seed) and we are the 7 seed... can't convince me that is right.

Bam Bam #7 B.O.I.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78498 is a reply to message #78489] Fri, 01 October 2010 20:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ÜBER
Messages: 82
Registered: September 2008
Location: Iowa City/ Chicago Suburb...
Member
J wrote on Fri, 01 October 2010 17:19
I think it be odd that Overhaul continues to get "knocked down" because the have lost to B.O.I. twice this year but B.O.I. does not get a "bump up" because we are the only team to have cracked the "top three" this year. This added to the fact that we are the only team, not in the "top three", to have beaten a team from last year's nationals. We are 2-2 against Overhaul (the current number 2 seed) and 2-1 vs Gambit (the current 5 seed) and we are the 7 seed... can't convince me that is right.

Bam Bam #7 B.O.I.


Boo self-promotion
icon7.gif  Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78537 is a reply to message #78489] Sat, 02 October 2010 21:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
KK08
Messages: 25
Registered: April 2010
Junior Member
B.O.I.......

don't lose a bunch of games and u'll be seeded higher Very Happy

Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78539 is a reply to message #78468] Sun, 03 October 2010 01:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Pat Niles
Messages: 19
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
> Drag'N Thrust, despite winning CHC, is 0-1 vs. CLX in head
> to head matchups.  I think this bears more weight than an "X
> beat Y beat Z" scenario to determine the region's top seed.


Thib, I'm failing to see your logic in this argument. Could you
explain why you think CLX's 1 point victory over Drag'n Thrust holds
more value than CLX's 2 point loss to Overhaul, who you claim is
inconsistent. Although it is true that CLX has the head to head win
at Cooler but Drag'n had no chance to play CLX at CHC since CLX lost
to Overhaul. Drag'n went on to beat that same Overhaul team 14-7 the
same day. It appears that results from CHC show which team was more
dominant, at a more recent tournament that has the same field strength
as Regionals.

The universe point results from Cooler should not "bear more weight"
for any reason. We both know that Cooler is not taken as seriously as
CHC and neither team had a full roster present.

All I'm looking for is justification that CLX is clearly the 1-seed
without stating "World Champions" as those results are not indicative
of the current CLX season or roster.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78559 is a reply to message #78479] Sun, 03 October 2010 09:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ultimatephotography
Messages: 422
Registered: September 2008
Senior Member
> No.  If a team qualifies fairly for an event, I do not
> begrudge them the opportunity to compete.
> And this year's mediocre team might be next year's outside
> shot and the following year's contender.

hahaha. you've got me rolling in my seat.
Central 2/3/4 pretty consistently is not competitive, regardless of
team's individual history at natties.

CLX/ACS being the strong exception.

although, you did say "might." so sure, historical might not predict.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78560 is a reply to message #78559] Sun, 03 October 2010 09:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ultimatephotography
Messages: 422
Registered: September 2008
Senior Member
And on the third hand, I see a Carleton (perhaps GOP?) team listed, so
anything that gives that team a shot (4 bids!) is great.
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78568 is a reply to message #78537] Sun, 03 October 2010 12:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
kevinseiler
Messages: 6
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
Pat,

You say that you want an argument for CLX being the one seed without "World Champion" being mentioned. Jon attempted to do so (he didn't mention "World Championship", he didn't mention central regional history, he used what was available on score reporter) and you called his argument illogical. He placed more emphasis on a head-to-head victory (CLX over Drag'n) than RACO and tournament finish at CHC (the x>y>z that he mentions). You say RACO and tournament finish are more important than head-to-head matchups. How is that argument any more logical?

The seedings as they now stand seem to only reflect what happened beween 11:00AM and 3:00PM on Sunday of CHCs, whether looking at places 1-3 or 5-7. JThib, and myself, I suppose now, are looking at things as they happened over an entire season.

Pat, you state that CHC is the most serious tournament that contains the most up-to-date rosters in central region, yet in this thread there are people saying that they didn't have their most representative rosters. I don't doubt it's significance in the tournament schedule, but take a look at how indicative of regional strenth CHCs is:

2003: CLX v. Bad Larry final. CLX beats Blah in semis. CLX finishes 5th at regionals and does not qualify. Blah qualifies and finishes 6th at nationals. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2004: CLX v. Flaming Moe final. Hot Action does not make quarters. CLX does win region, Hot Action finishes second a, Flaming Moe finishes 5th and does not qualify. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2005: Can't remember the final. Meth and Carleton do not make final. Meth and Carleton take first two spots to nationals. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2006: CLX loses to Mr. Briefcase in quarters. Moe makes final. CLX wins region. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2007: Slow White beats Moe in the finals. Moe beats ICE in semis. ICE wins region, Moe fails to qualify, losing twice to a Carleton team that didn't make semis of CHC. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2008: ACS wins CHC over Peppermint Bonbon. This is how regionals finished. Finally, one does seem to indicate how the region stacks up.
2009: CLX wins CHC over Drag'n. Drag finishes higher than One Trick Pony. CLX wins region, Drag'n fails to qualify after losing twice to One Trick Pony at regionals. CHC finish is NOT indicative of regional strength.

So, it seems that CHCs is just another tournament, certainly not one that deserves to be heavily relied upon to determine Cental regional seedings, enough so to ignore other results.

I think JThib is right about the top 7 seeds. Gambit may have beaten BOI and Madison in consolation games at CHC, but that shouldn't erase the fact that Gambit has a losing record aganst BOI, is 1-1 against Madison, and has 3 losses to the 8 seed, Prion. 5-7 should be Madison/BOI/Gambit.

He argues that Overhaul is too inconsistent to be considered as part of a three-way CLX/Drag'n/Overhaul comparison because of losses to BOI (with one coming after CHCs at sectionals). If Overhaul didn't have the win over CLX at CHCs, they are at least a four, maybe a five or a six seed because of those losses.

If Overhaul is not part of that comparison, then in light of the CLX/Drag'n ambiguity (CLX owns head-to-head and Cooler win (not to mention a MUDI win over a ful squad Drag'n, regardless of what the name of the team was), Drag'n has RACO and CHC win). If there is ambiguity and no consensus as to what is more important (h2h or Raco, two tournament wins or one tournament win), then regional history and other data from this season should be taken into consideration. Discount a World Championship all you want with your roster arguments (our medals may dissappear on paper but not in reality), I think you know the truth about it all. Plus, does it help your argument to say "CLX is just holding onto a World Championship as their argument"? I can imagine holding onto far less (CHC perhaps?), not to forget that it happened THIS season and was a WORLD CHAMPIONSIP.

I think JThibs argument and mine can be summed up as: look at the full season when seeding teams.
Yours seems to be: look only at CHCs, it was the only "serious" tournament of the year
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78576 is a reply to message #78539] Sun, 03 October 2010 15:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
kevinseiler
Messages: 6
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
Pat,

You say that you want an argument for CLX being the one seed without "World Champion" being mentioned. Jon attempted to do so (he didn't mention "World Championship", he didn't mention central regional history, he used what was available on score reporter) and you called his argument illogical. He placed more emphasis on a head-to-head victory (CLX over Drag'n) than RACO and tournament finish at CHC (the x>y>z that he mentions). You say RACO and tournament finish are more important than head-to-head matchups. How is that argument any more logical?

The seedings as they now stand seem to only reflect what happened beween 11:00AM and 3:00PM on Sunday of CHCs, whether looking at places 1-3 or 5-7. JThib, and myself, I suppose now, are looking at things as they happened over an entire season.

Pat, you state that CHC is the most serious tournament that contains the most up-to-date rosters in central region, yet in this thread there are people saying that they didn't have their most representative rosters. I don't doubt it's significance in the tournament schedule, but take a look at how indicative of regional strenth CHCs is:

2003: CLX v. Bad Larry final. CLX beats Blah in semis. CLX finishes 5th at regionals and does not qualify. Blah qualifies and finishes 6th at nationals. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2004: CLX v. Flaming Moe final. Hot Action does not make quarters. CLX does win region, Hot Action finishes second a, Flaming Moe finishes 5th and does not qualify. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2005: Can't remember the final. Meth and Carleton do not make final. Meth and Carleton take first two spots to nationals. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2006: CLX loses to Mr. Briefcase in quarters. Moe makes final. CLX wins region. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2007: Slow White beats Moe in the finals. Moe beats ICE in semis. ICE wins region, Moe fails to qualify, losing twice to a Carleton team that didn't make semis of CHC. CHCs does NOT seem indicative of regional strength.
2008: ACS wins CHC over Peppermint Bonbon. This is how regionals finished. Finally, one does seem to indicate how the region stacks up.
2009: CLX wins CHC over Drag'n. Drag finishes higher than One Trick Pony. CLX wins region, Drag'n fails to qualify after losing twice to One Trick Pony at regionals. CHC finish is NOT indicative of regional strength.

So, it seems that CHCs is just another tournament, certainly not one that deserves to be heavily relied upon to determine Cental regional seedings, enough so to ignore other results.

I think JThib is right about the top 7 seeds. Gambit may have beaten BOI and Madison in consolation games at CHC, but that shouldn't erase the fact that Gambit has a losing record aganst BOI, is 1-1 against Madison, and has 3 losses to the 8 seed, Prion. 5-7 should be Madison/BOI/Gambit.

He argues that Overhaul is too inconsistent to be considered as part of a three-way CLX/Drag'n/Overhaul comparison because of losses to BOI (with one coming after CHCs at sectionals). If Overhaul didn't have the win over CLX at CHCs, they are at least a four, maybe a five or a six seed because of those losses.

If Overhaul is not part of that comparison, then in light of the CLX/Drag'n ambiguity (CLX owns head-to-head and Cooler win (not to mention a MUDI win over a ful squad Drag'n, regardless of what the name of the team was), Drag'n has RACO and CHC win). If there is ambiguity and no consensus as to what is more important (h2h or Raco, two tournament wins or one tournament win), then regional history and other data from this season should be taken into consideration. Discount a World Championship all you want with your roster arguments (our medals may dissappear on paper but not in reality), I think you know the truth about it all. Plus, does it help your argument to say "CLX is just holding onto a World Championship as their argument"? I can imagine holding onto far less (CHC perhaps?), not to forget that it happened THIS season and was a WORLD CHAMPIONSIP.

I think JThibs argument and mine can be summed up as: look at the full season when seeding teams.
Yours seems to be: look only at CHCs, it was the only "serious" tournament of the year
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78588 is a reply to message #78576] Sun, 03 October 2010 17:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
gcooke
Messages: 22
Registered: November 2008
Junior Member
Kevin cannot throw me even one bone....

2005 CHC finals: Moe over 6TM. 6TM over CLX and Mow over Briefcase in semis.

-George
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78592 is a reply to message #78588] Sun, 03 October 2010 17:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
kevinseiler
Messages: 6
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
Sorry George,

I thought the bone I threw you was to throw the game-losing turnover at CHCs that year.

I have in my notes 6TM over CLX, but couldn't remember if it was semis or quarters, plus 6TM isn't in region and didn't advance argument. But the information further shows that CHCs isn't necessarily indicative of regional strenth heading into regionals.

2005: Moe over 6 Trained Monkeys in finals. Meth, Carleton, and CLX qualify for nationals. Moe fails to qualify.

I miss you George. Nationals seedings just isn't the same without you! Though we never saw eye to eye on seedings it was enjoyable to talk about the division with you in person.

Kevin
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78619 is a reply to message #78592] Mon, 04 October 2010 04:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
gcooke
Messages: 22
Registered: November 2008
Junior Member
Ah, touche about the turnover....

While I think your point about CHC's not being predictive about Regionals is well-documented and interesting, I felt that, specifically in 04, I missed the fact that CHC's can be predictive of teams doing well at Nationals.

And, yes, for me as well, our conversations about seedings helped to make things slightly more transparent over the years.

Best of luck this weekend.

-G
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78634 is a reply to message #78619] Mon, 04 October 2010 06:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Shabadoo
Messages: 15
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
Oooh, I have a rational argument. How about that CLX has one loss on
the year(including World's), Drag'n has three(plus MUDI), and Overhaul
has ten? Is this seriously an argument? It looks a lot more like
people looking for an excuse to not seed CLX #1.

-Joey
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78654 is a reply to message #78576] Mon, 04 October 2010 07:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Pat Niles
Messages: 19
Registered: October 2008
Junior Member
Kevin-

To start off, I just want to say that I'm not trying to discredit a World Championship. I know that the gold medals do not disappear and I also know that CLX is a great team that everyone should fear come series time. I know that most my motivation going into regionals comes from anticipating another CLX/Drag'n matchup, one I wish would have happened at CHC so we wouldn't even be having a seeding discussion.

In my last post I stated that I was failing to see the logic of JThibs seedings. This is not the same as calling his seedings or arguments illogical, maybe I'm just slow. From what I understand from Series Seedings, more recent tournament results carry more weight than ones earlier in the season. My intent was to create conversation as to why a 1pt victory H2H at Cooler is more important than RACO at CHC? (Sidenote: Cooler was clearly a close game and I think we both can agree that that outcome could have easily been different. Congrats to CLX for pulling it out though.) If the H2H was more decisive, I understand why it would be considered more important.

I also think looking at the full season of results is very important. It seems as though you are putting less value in "what happened beween 11:00AM and 3:00PM on Sunday of CHCs." If you include the entire season, I don't know where you can say CLX has a leg-up besides 1 universe point at Cooler.

Kevin, the only point I was trying to make about rosters being most complete at CHC was in regards to Drag'n and Chad. Correct me if I'm wrong, but CLX was basically full roster at CHC, yes?

Onto the historical CHC/Regionals data:

Although I do not have as much history or compiled data as Kevin, I do agree that there is a discrepancy between CHC results and regional results. One could argue that this year might be more representative due to the lack of out-of-region team strength present. We will only know after this weekend, but if we're looking at full season results, we cannot look past what happened at CHC by stating that results from this tournament are not a good indicator of regional strength.

I completely agree with Thib's 3-7 seedings. Everything makes sense with the Madison/BOI/Gambit results. I agree with Thib in his assertion that "Overhaul is too inconsistent to be considered as part of a three-way CLX/Drag'n/Overhaul comparison," but the results from this three-way cannot be overlooked. You cannot just throw out the Overhaul results because Overhaul is not being considered for a top spot. Besides H2H (1-pt) at Cooler the only other thing that differentiates the 2 teams results is the RACO with Overhaul.

Kevin, you say that "if Overhaul didn't have the win over CLX at CHCs, they are at least a four, maybe a five or a six seed because of those losses." Why should Overhaul be raised up with a win over CLX instead of CLX being lowered because of a loss to an inconsistent team that could be a five or a six seed. Drag'n has NO LOSSES to teams that you consider 5-6 seed.

To include MUDI results in this conversation is just absurd. Drag'n was split squad for the entire weekend, (split squads with tryout players managed to go 13-15 and 12-15 against CLX) until the championship game when we combined and again lost 13-15. Drag'n players played roughly twice as many points before the championship due to split squads. In all other threads, people tend to argue if it's a tryout team, don't use the real team name unless you want the results to count. Drag'n did that, enough said.

At common tournaments as CLX/Drag'n, Drag'n has 2 finals appearances with 1 tournament win. CLX only has 1 finals appearance with one tournament win.

I personally like the 1-3 seedings as they are, although I think CLX and Overhaul could be switched. In this thread, we're already basically stating Drag'n/CLX to be 1-2 in some order. The only major glaring question is CLX vs Overhaul. With the current seeds, this would give an Overhaul vs CLX semifinal and CLX would have to prove that they're better than Overhaul to make finals. This seems more important than Drag'n vs Overhaul (2-0 Drag'n) and CLX vs MethOD (2-0 CLX).

After all this, I'm still just looking for someone to explain how a 1-pt H2H result is more important than a RACO that actually shows a disparity between the two teams in question.

Pat

Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78678 is a reply to message #78654] Mon, 04 October 2010 11:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Smellsworth
Messages: 90
Registered: October 2008
Member
Did Kevin and Pat break up?
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78686 is a reply to message #78654] Mon, 04 October 2010 12:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hotlou
Messages: 73
Registered: September 2008
Member
Pat --

I examined your post very closely and came up with this very good
summary of it: "CLX is 4-0 vs. DT teams."

- Joe's Brother

On Oct 4, 9:40 am, Pat Niles <nile...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Kevin-
>
> To start off, I just want to say that I'm not trying to
> discredit a World Championship.  I know that the gold medals
> do not disappear and I also know that CLX is a great team
> that everyone should fear come series time.  I know that
> most my motivation going into regionals comes from
> anticipating another CLX/Drag'n matchup, one I wish would
> have happened at CHC so we wouldn't even be having a seeding
> discussion.  
>
> In my last post I stated that I was failing to see the logic
> of JThibs seedings.  This is not the same as calling his
> seedings or arguments illogical, maybe I'm just slow.  From
> what I understand from Series Seedings, more recent
> tournament results carry more weight than ones earlier in
> the season.  My intent was to create conversation as to why
> a 1pt victory H2H at Cooler is more important than RACO at
> CHC? (Sidenote: Cooler was clearly a close game and I think
> we both can agree that that outcome could have easily been
> different.  Congrats to CLX for pulling it out though.)  If
> the H2H was more decisive, I understand why it would be
> considered more important.
>
> I also think looking at the full season of results is very
> important.  It seems as though you are putting less value in
> "what happened beween 11:00AM and 3:00PM on Sunday of CHCs."
> If you include the entire season, I don't know where you can
> say CLX has a leg-up besides 1 universe point at Cooler.
>
> Kevin, the only point I was trying to make about rosters
> being most complete at CHC was in regards to Drag'n and
> Chad.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but CLX was basically full
> roster at CHC, yes?
>
> Onto the historical CHC/Regionals data:
>
> Although I do not have as much history or compiled data as
> Kevin, I do agree that there is a discrepancy between CHC
> results and regional results.  One could argue that this
> year might be more representative due to the lack of
> out-of-region team strength present.  We will only know
> after this weekend, but if we're looking at full season
> results, we cannot look past what happened at CHC by stating
> that results from this tournament are not a good indicator
> of regional strength.  
>
> I completely agree with Thib's 3-7 seedings.  Everything
> makes sense with the Madison/BOI/Gambit results.  I agree
> with Thib in his assertion that "Overhaul is too
> inconsistent to be considered as part of a three-way
> CLX/Drag'n/Overhaul comparison," but the results from this
> three-way cannot be overlooked.  You cannot just throw out
> the Overhaul results because Overhaul is not being
> considered for a top spot. Besides H2H (1-pt) at Cooler the
> only other thing that differentiates the 2 teams results is
> the RACO with Overhaul.
>
> Kevin, you say that "if Overhaul didn't have the win over
> CLX at CHCs, they are at least a four, maybe a five or a six
> seed because of those losses."  Why should Overhaul be
> raised up with a win over CLX instead of CLX being lowered
> because of a loss to an inconsistent team that could be a
> five or a six seed.  Drag'n has NO LOSSES to teams that you
> consider 5-6 seed.
>
> To include MUDI results in this conversation is just absurd.
>  Drag'n was split squad for the entire weekend, (split
> squads with tryout players managed to go 13-15 and 12-15
> against CLX) until the championship game when we combined
> and again lost 13-15.  Drag'n players played roughly twice
> as many points before the championship due to split squads.
> In all other threads, people tend to argue if it's a tryout
> team, don't use the real team name unless you want the
> results to count.  Drag'n did that, enough said.
>
> At common tournaments as CLX/Drag'n, Drag'n has 2 finals
> appearances with 1 tournament win.  CLX only has 1 finals
> appearance with one tournament win.
>
> I personally like the 1-3 seedings as they are, although I
> think CLX and Overhaul could be switched. In this thread,
> we're already basically stating Drag'n/CLX to be 1-2 in some
> order. The only major glaring question is CLX vs Overhaul.
> With the current seeds, this would give an Overhaul vs CLX
> semifinal and CLX would have to prove that they're better
> than Overhaul to make finals.  This seems more important
> than Drag'n vs Overhaul (2-0 Drag'n) and CLX vs MethOD (2-0
> CLX).  
>
> After all this, I'm still just looking for someone to
> explain how a 1-pt H2H result is more important than a RACO
> that actually shows a disparity between the two teams in
> question.
>
> Pat
>
> --
> Posted fromhttp://www.rsdnospam.com
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78696 is a reply to message #78686] Mon, 04 October 2010 14:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
gladerje
Messages: 4
Registered: March 2010
Junior Member
Let me clarify it for you Lou ;)

CLX beat a 14 person tryout team and a 13 person tryout team by 2 and
3 points at MUDI; both teams composed of Dragon Thrust members and
tryout and practice personnel.

The finals of the tournament were then played between CLX and the 2
tryout teams combined (after each had played almost a full tourney
with a short squad).

Ultra Plasma Bears with Lightening and Ben Lyons and the Blowfish were
the official teams that played that weekend, not Drag'n Thrust.

So CLX is officially 1-0 vs. Drag'n Thrust and 3-0 vs. various other
tryout teams.

love jaime
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78697 is a reply to message #78686] Mon, 04 October 2010 15:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
DK21
Messages: 59
Registered: September 2008
Member
There's typically no perfect way to seed one of these things, since all the factors won't line up perfectly. Given, USAU/UPA doesn't do a great job of explaining how seeding is done, but this is one area where the practice has developed over time to be more concrete than the unranked list of factors in the guidelines might suggest. In my experience, head-to-head results, RACO, and tournament finish data between competing teams get prioritized, with some extra emphasis on more recent results. The other stuff mostly only matters where that data is unavailable. Seeding is not meant to be predictive, but rather reactive to the results of the season so far.

So stuff like the following is irrelevant (except for how it relates to the relevant factors above): a teams total number of reported wins and losses, the tendency of the results of one tournament to be similar to or differ from the results of another tournament, how hard teams tried in the games they played, who was missing from each team's roster, and how many people posted on RSD in favor of one setup over another.

We don't want to create an environment where teams must think of new and interesting angles to manipulate the seeding in their favor, and we all end up making a gazillion posts comparing apples and oranges. We don't even want an environment where teams feel like they must email the coordinator or risk having their seed knocked down by the loud voices of their competitors. We'd much rather have an environment where the easily measurable results of the current season are able to speak for themselves, and a fairly set priority of factors are employed when these results aren't useful.

So if you want coordinators to be swayed, it's best to just talk about the head-to-head, RACO, and tournament finish factors, especially where plenty of all three are available between the competing teams.

I'm the RC for central mixed 2010, but I also play for Drag'n Thrust and am thus biased. Therefore I asked the national director to help me with seeding the top 3 teams - she has to approve the whole thing anyway. Since I'm not deciding the top 3 anyway, I'll share my personal opinion on the topic.

Regarding head-to-head, the top 3 teams here all have an argument for the #1 seed because they've all beat one of the other top teams and lost to the other. If you look at it as a 3-way tie, the tie-breaker seeding order would be Drag'n-Overhaul-CLX, since Drag'n beat Overhaul by 7 and 2, Overhaul beat CLX by 2, and CLX beat Drag'n by 1. Now Overhaul is also 2-2 with BOI, another team at regionals. But in their most recent meeting, Overhaul won 15-6, taking the sectional championship, and therefore must be seeded above BOI, effectively distancing Overhaul from BOI.

RACO is pretty even between Drag'n and CLX - depends whether you put more emphasis on results against a few top teams (favors Drag'n) or a few more bottom teams (favors CLX). Overhaul has a bit weaker RACO, but still strong enough that it wouldn't be out of line to seed them over either CLX or Drag'n if, for example, they won head-to-head over them...

Tournament finish factors mostly concur with the above order - the order of finish at CHC, the most recent tournament, was Drag'n-Overhaul-CLX. Drag'n finished higher than Overhaul at Philly a long time ago. CLX finished higher than Drag'n at Cooler. No other tournaments this year featured more than one of the three teams in question.

Kevin of CLX argues that Overhaul's results aren't good enough to consider them in a 3-way tie, and therefore we should just compare CLX and Drag'n, thus improving CLX's argument for the #1 seed, with the 1-0 head-to-head record, similar RACO, and similar tournament finishes. Obviously I disagrees with this approach, and it's unlikely that either of us will convince the other.

And as to all the other chatter, it's not really relevant for seeding, since H2H, RACO, and TF data are present. That said, it is awesome that CLX won worlds and only lost one game this season. And not to take anything away from them, but when you get to talking about seeding regionals - Overhaul and Drag'n weren't at worlds, and CLX hasn't traveled outside of the region with their series roster whereas Drag'n and Overhaul have. Drag'n's two losses outside of the regional triangle were to District 5 and Slow White (when Drag'n traveled to Philly) - two teams that CLX hasn't played this year - and two teams that have been kicking ass across the country all season, taking 1st and 2nd place at ECCs.

(Regarding MUDI - Drag'n did send two split-squad teams, and we did combine for the finals vs. CLX since both sides were plenty tired and injured and we wanted to give CLX as good of a game as we could in thanks for them driving up to MN for the tournament. Before the game I asked Kevin if he wanted this to officially be a CLX vs. Drag'n game, or if he wanted it to be CLX vs. Ben Lyons and the Blowfish, for score reporter purposes. Kevin thought about it and told me he'd rather it be vs. Ben Lyons and the Blowfish. If he had chosen differently, CLX would have 2 wins over Drag'n. I'm not sure how much that would change the seeding arguments, though, since there's still a triangle and Drag'n has 2 wins over Overhaul, but it certainly wouldn't have hurt CLX's position.)

Here's the good news about the format - these teams are going to get to hash it out this weekend. Regardless of the 1-3 seeding, the teams are likely to meet in semis, finals, and the 2nd place games, unless another team in the tournament is able to take one of us down first. Even if seeds hold until finals, the 1 seed could still take 3rd behind the 2 and 3 seeds . . . they have to prove it by beating the better of the 2 in finals, and if they can't, they have to prove it by beating the worse of the 2 for 3rd. So all this chatter over the top 3 seeds means a lot less than it would if, for example, the format didn't play out both the 2nd place and 3rd place games.

I'll refrain from getting in detail on the 5-7 debacle or 10-12 firestorm ;p, but suffice to say that it's at least arguably close, I really appreciate all the feedback on those areas and have heard great (and less than great) arguments from many of the involved teams and plenty of other teams too, and I'll be working with the ND to hammer this stuff out and get the seeding finalized ASAP.

Thanks,
Dave
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78700 is a reply to message #78697] Mon, 04 October 2010 16:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
DK21
Messages: 59
Registered: September 2008
Member
edit: what I meant was "So all this chatter over the top 3 seeds means a lot less than it would if, for example, the format didn't play out the 2nd place game."
Re: Central Mixed Regionals 2010 [message #78705 is a reply to message #78088] Mon, 04 October 2010 18:15 Go to previous message
Paul Kruse
Messages: 6
Registered: April 2009
Junior Member
As always, well put Dave. Thanks for sharing your/ND's reasoning behind the decisions.
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